Weather report Saturday
AROME: Last showers at 10
COSMO: Last showers at 12
Both models show clearings at our area already in the morning. In the morning mixed with stratus at middle hight. From 12 to 16h we will have some sun at Disentis and a cloud base along the mountains will establish:
At 17h we will get a cloud cover at middle hight (4000m) because of a occlusion frontal system arriving.
At lower levels valley brise.
Snow is above 2600m (if it would be lower, it would have a big influence to the wind at take off)
If there are proper cumulus along the mountains, it will be flyable. Normally the wind picks up in such a situation around 12h. The question is, if the wind starts later, because of the rain and cloud cover. Can we start at 14h? Or do we have already NW-erly at take off?
I made a meeting with two locals (Marc Demont and Urs Braun, they are in the local tasksettingteam). We would summarize following:
The chance to be able to take off is 50%, the chance for a valid task of 60km 30%.
Therefor we stay here. Next info 19h.